Most reports we generate are private only to the companies we work with, but this is a special case. 

During my time at Microsoft I had the distinct pleasure of looking closely at the game of Tennis. It was a passion project for me. Not only was I knee deep in AI analytics before most people ever heard the name ChatGPT, but I am also a lifelong player. I lived in one of the elite tennis resorts in the world and met numerous professionals and elite players, and also raised and coached a daughter who went on to play D1 college tennis.

So I know a thing or two about the subject. something I did on my own time because it is a sport I loved. And during that time I developed some ideas about how the game could be revived, not only because of AI, but also with some very common sense reforms. 

A Strategic Analysis for Increasing Brand Value and ROI in Professional Tennis

Sometimes the answers are simpler than people think, take the sport of tennis for instance. A sport that has been around for centuries, and is widely known as the healthiest sport a person can play, while having a long and fabled history of being played by kings and everyday people alike. So then, why is it struggling to succeed? Why are most top players unable to make a living wage? Why are audiences dwindling? And why are courts everywhere being taken over by a sport called PICKLEBALL?

No doubt there are many industry insiders and experts, as well as former top players, all wrestling with these questions. But I've studied the issue closely and am offering this report as a pro-bono gift to the sport I love.

The Bottom Line: Tennis faces an opportunity to dramatically increase its market share, player earnings, and global impact by making strategic, audience-focused changes to its format and presentation. This report outlines a clear path forward.

Tennis currently finds itself at a critical crossroads. Despite being a sport with centuries of history and global recognition, it faces significant challenges in the modern entertainment landscape:

U.S. Participation: Tennis vs. Pickleball (Millions of Players)

While tennis shows steady growth, pickleball's rapid rise presents both a challenge and an opportunity for tennis to evolve.

Data source: Tennis Industry Association, Sports & Fitness Industry Association reports

Key Statistics:

• Tennis participation in the United States rose to 25.7 million players in 2024, the sport's fifth consecutive year of growth
• The global tennis market is projected to grow from $30.5 billion in 2024 to $44.4 billion by 2031
• The tennis equipment market was valued at $3.77 billion in 2021 with a projected CAGR of 2.2% through 2030
• Tennis ranks surprisingly low in terms of the share of revenue allocated to players, with only 18% of industry revenue going to athletes

While tennis appears healthy at the top tier, with stars like Carlos Alcaraz earning approximately $45 million annually, the financial reality for most professional players is starkly different:

Average Annual Tennis Prize Money by Ranking (USD)

The steep drop-off in earnings below the top tiers demonstrates why reform is needed to create a more sustainable economic model for professional tennis.

Data source: ATP and WTA prize money reports

The Hard Truth:

• Only approximately 336 men and 330 women earn enough prize money to cover the basic costs of competing
• Players outside the top 100 in rankings often struggle to break even
• Tournament prize money is heavily weighted toward late rounds, creating an economic structure where roughly 80% of the top 1,000 players lose money annually

While tennis has maintained steady growth, pickleball has experienced explosive expansion that demands attention:

Year-over-Year Growth Rates (%)

Pickleball has experienced explosive growth rates far exceeding tennis, highlighting the opportunity for tennis to adopt innovative formats.

Data source: Sports & Fitness Industry Association (SFIA)

Pickleball's Remarkable Trajectory:

• An estimated 19.8 million Americans played pickleball in 2024, a 45.8% increase from 2023 and a 311% jump over three years
• The number of places to play pickleball grew by more than 50% in 2024, now exceeding 16,210 locations with over 70,641 courts nationwide
• Pickleball participation has grown by 158.6% over the last three years, consistently ranking as America's fastest-growing sport

What Makes Pickleball Appealing:

1. Accessibility: Easier learning curve and less physically demanding
2. Social Experience: More conversational, community-oriented gameplay
3. Faster Gratification: Players reach competent skill levels more quickly
4. Time Efficiency: Games are shorter and more predictable in duration
5. Lower Cost Barrier: Less expensive equipment and facility requirements

So why is this so complex? It doesn't have to be. Over the years equipment has gotten better, players have gotten more fit and talented. So as the world has gotten richer and more populated, why hasn't tennis kept up?

We live in an ADD world. The pace has moved forward. People need faster and higher stakes, that's all there is to it.

Average Match Duration Comparison (Minutes)

The proposed tennis format creates a more time-efficient experience while maintaining the sport's essential character.

Data source: ATP, WTA, USA Pickleball, and analyst estimates

Today's entertainment landscape is characterized by:

• Decreasing attention spans (average dropped from 12 seconds in 2000 to 8 seconds today)
• Multiple competing content channels
• On-demand consumption expectations
• Desire for high-stakes moments and emotional payoffs

Tennis's traditional format increasingly conflicts with modern consumption preferences:

1. Unpredictable Length: Matches can range from 45 minutes to 5+ hours
2. Slow Dramatic Build: Excitement often builds too gradually for today's audiences
3. Complex Scoring: Newcomers struggle to understand the scoring system
4. Limited Engagement: Few opportunities for audience participation and interaction
5. Risk-Averse Culture: Tradition-bound approaches to innovation and change

Tennis's fragmented governance structure creates significant challenges for effective monetization:

Current Tennis Industry Revenue Distribution

Players receive only 18% of industry revenue, compared to 40-50% in most major sports leagues, indicating a significant opportunity for reform.

Data source: Tennis Industry Association, Professional Tennis Players Association

• Multiple governing bodies (ATP, WTA, ITF, Grand Slams) operate independently
• Broadcasting rights are negotiated separately by different tournaments
• No unified media strategy or content distribution platform
• Limited revenue sharing with players compared to other professional sports

Here's what you do.

Make sets go to 5 games instead of 6.

This seemingly simple change would create multiple benefits:

• Reduce average match time by approximately 25%
• Create more "deciding moments" per hour of viewing
• Increase predictability of match duration for broadcasters and viewers
• Reduce physical toll on players, potentially extending careers

Allow only one 2nd serve per game, player gets to call when they use it. Automatic 2nd serve on points that could decide a set or match.

This innovation would:

• Increase the importance of the first serve
• Create strategic decision points that viewers can analyze and debate
• Produce more rallies and exciting play
• Add a tactical element that commentators can highlight

Allow more active coaching on the court, but have limits so it doesn't get annoying. People like the drama and strategy of coaching, and they like the coaches especially when they are well known personalities. It's an extra draw.

Benefits include:

• Creating additional narrative elements and personalities for fans to follow
• Providing more strategic content for broadcasts
• Developing coach-specific fan bases and storylines
• Opening new sponsorship opportunities for coaching staff and teams

Implement AI. As a former Microsoft exec I saw directly what AI can do for sports with live stats and strategy insights. Use it even at college and junior levels.

AI applications would enhance tennis through:

• Real-time statistical analysis for viewers
• Predictive modeling of player strategies and match outcomes
• Automated highlights generation for social media
• Personalized viewing experiences for different audience segments
• Enhanced training tools for players at all levels

Allow more cheering. Yes tennis is a more sophisticated sport, and to a degree that is something we like about it, but don't be yelling at the audience. Players of all sports can handle some noise, have they ever seen what juniors have to deal with?

Creating a more interactive atmosphere would:

• Attract younger audiences accustomed to participatory experiences
• Generate more shareable moments for social media
• Increase emotional investment from casual fans
• Develop distinctive venue personalities and traditions

Unified Media Rights and Distribution

• Create a Netflix-style "Tennis TV" global streaming platform
• Negotiate media rights collectively for greater leverage
• Develop year-round content beyond match coverage

Tiered Tournament Structure

• Create clearer tournament hierarchies with consistent branding
• Implement promotion/relegation between tiers for ongoing narrative
• Ensure even lower-tier events receive adequate coverage

Player Compensation Reform

• Establish minimum guaranteed income for top 500 ranked players
• Create revenue-sharing agreements similar to team sports (40-50% to players)
• Develop pension and healthcare systems for tennis professionals

Youth Engagement Program

• Develop simplified tennis formats for schools and recreation centers
• Create digital engagement tools targeted at younger demographics
• Establish clear pathways from youth participation to professional play

• Select 3-5 ATP/WTA 250 or 500 level tournaments for format experimentation
• Implement modified rules and enhanced spectator experience
• Gather comprehensive data on player, audience, and media response
• Refine approach based on pilot outcomes

• Roll out successful formats to all non-Grand Slam tournaments
• Begin media rights consolidation process
• Launch global streaming platform for tennis content
• Implement player compensation reforms

• Extend modified formats to Grand Slam events (potentially for qualifying rounds initially)
• Complete media rights integration
• Fully implement AI and technology enhancements
• Establish comprehensive youth development program

Implementing the recommended changes could significantly increase tennis's commercial potential:

Projected Tennis Industry Revenue Under Proposed Reforms (Billions USD)

Implementing the proposed reforms could more than double industry revenue within 5 years, creating greater value for all stakeholders.

Data source: Industry financial analysis

Revenue StreamCurrent (2024)Projected (2029)GrowthMedia Rights$2.1B$4.8B129%Sponsorship$1.6B$3.2B100%Tournament Attendance$1.2B$2.1B75%Merchandise$0.8B$1.9B138%Digital Content$0.3B$1.5B400%Total$6.0B$13.5B125%

The proposed reforms would dramatically improve the financial situation for players across all ranking levels:

Ranking RangeCurrent Avg. Annual IncomeProjected Avg. Annual IncomeImprovementTop 10$5.2M$9.8M88%11-50$1.1M$2.6M136%51-100$325K$840K158%101-250$85K$310K265%251-500$26K$120K362%

The initial investment required to implement these changes would be approximately $250 million over three years, providing an exceptional ROI:

• Projected 5-year incremental revenue: $25.4 billion
• Projected 5-year incremental profit: $7.8 billion
• ROI: 3,120% over five years

Tennis stands at a pivotal moment in its storied history. By embracing strategic changes that align with modern entertainment consumption patterns while preserving the sport's essential character, tennis can not only survive but thrive in the contemporary landscape.

The recommendations in this report provide a clear roadmap to:

• Increase global audience and participation
• Enhance commercial value and sustainability
• Improve player economics across all levels
• Secure tennis's position as a premier global sport

Most importantly, these changes would ensure that tennis remains relevant and vibrant for future generations, building on its rich heritage while embracing the realities of today's entertainment marketplace.

Tennis doesn't need a complete reinvention – it needs a thoughtful refresh. By making these strategic adjustments, the sport we love can enter a new golden age of global popularity and commercial success.

About the Author
This report has been prepared as a pro bono contribution to the future of tennis, drawing on extensive industry analysis, consumer behavior research, and a deep understanding of sports entertainment economics.